Preflop All-In Matchups: The Equities Worth Memorizing
Preflop all-in matchups fall into three buckets: crushed (70/30+), coin flip (50-55%), and dominated (65-75%). Memorizing AA vs KK (82/18), a standard coin flip (roughly 52/48), and AK vs AQ (74/26) covers most spots you'll actually face at the table.
Preflop all-in matchups are the moments where two hands go to showdown with no more betting left, and the outcome is decided purely by card equity. Knowing the equities worth memorizing ahead of time — the handful of matchups that show up over and over — means you’re not doing math at the table, you’re recognizing a pattern you already know.
I started tracking these numbers seriously a few years back, mostly because I got tired of freezing up mid-hand trying to estimate whether a coin flip was worth the risk. Turns out there are really only three buckets you need cold: crushed, coin flip, and dominated. Everything else is a variation on one of those three.
Why Memorize Equities Instead of Just Running a Calculator?
A solver or an equity calculator is more precise than your memory, no argument there. Problem is, you don’t get to open one mid-hand. Live tournaments ban devices at the table, and even online, a fast-paced table doesn’t leave time to plug numbers into a preflop equity calculator vs memorization comparison, by the time you’ve typed the hands in, the timer’s expired.
Memorization gets you close enough, fast enough, to make a good decision under pressure. You lose a percentage point or two of precision compared to a full run, but you gain the ability to actually use the number in real time. That trade-off is worth it for anyone who plays more than a few hands a month.
The Big Three Buckets: Crushed, Coin Flip, Dominated
Every all-in preflop matchup falls into one of three categories, and once you internalize the rough range for each, you can slot almost any real-world hand into a bucket within a second or two.
Crushed matchups run 70/30 or worse, think AA vs any hand that doesn’t share a card with it, like AA vs 72 offsuit (around 88/12). Coin flips sit close to 50/50, usually a pocket pair against two overcards. Dominated hands share a card with the favorite and land somewhere in the 65-75% range for the better hand, because the dominated hand’s outs are partially blocked by the shared card.
What’s the Exact Equity of Aces vs Kings Preflop?
This is the one every player should know cold, because it’s the highest-stakes coin-flip-adjacent spot in the game, except it’s not actually a flip. AA vs KK, per commonly cited solver-derived equity tables, runs roughly 82% for the aces and 18% for the kings. It’s not a coin flip precisely because AA already has two live outs to make a set against a hand that can barely improve, and KK’s only real hope is pairing a king or catching a lucky runout.
Compare that to AA vs QQ, which lands close to the same range (about 82.5/17.5), or AA vs AK suited, which tightens to roughly 88/12 because the ace is dead for KK’s opponent-side outs. The takeaway: any pocket pair below AA facing aces is in worse shape than most players intuitively expect.
Coin Flips vs Dominated Hands: What’s the Difference?
A coin flip matchup is close to a straight 50/50 proposition, most commonly a mid pocket pair against two overcards, something like 88 vs AK usually runs close to 53/47 in the pair’s favor, tightening toward true 50/50 the lower the pair and higher the overcards. This is the classic “flip” spot that decides a huge share of tournament stacks.
A dominated hand is a different animal. It shares a card with the favorite, so its outs are structurally reduced. AK vs AQ isn’t close to a flip; it’s roughly 74/26 because AQ can only really win by pairing the queen or catching two running cards, and the shared ace means AQ can’t pair aces to catch up. Dominated spots look deceptively similar to coin flips at a glance (two “big cards” against two “big cards”) but the equity gap is enormous.
A Quick Equity Chart Worth Bookmarking
Here’s the reference table I keep coming back to. These are rounded figures based on widely cited preflop simulation data, and exact numbers shift slightly with specific suits and blockers.
| Matchup | Favorite Equity | Underdog Equity | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA vs KK | ~82% | ~18% | Crushed |
| AA vs AKs | ~88% | ~12% | Crushed (dominated) |
| KK vs AQ | ~70% | ~30% | Crushed |
| 88 vs AK | ~53% | ~47% | Coin flip |
| JJ vs AK | ~54% | ~46% | Coin flip |
| AK vs AQ | ~74% | ~26% | Dominated |
| AA vs 72o | ~88% | ~12% | Crushed |
| QQ vs AK | ~54-57% | ~43-46% | Coin flip / slight edge |
If you only remember four rows, make it AA vs KK, a coin flip (88 vs AK), a dominated hand (AK vs AQ), and QQ vs AK, since that last one covers the classic “should I get it in with queens” debate that comes up constantly.
How This Maps to Risk-Reward in Trading Accounts
The parallel to retail trading isn’t a stretch. Expected value in all-in poker decisions works the same way as position sizing in a trading account: you’re weighing a probability against a payout, and the math doesn’t care how confident you feel. A 55% coin flip for your whole stack is a fine decision in isolation, but stack it back-to-back and variance will occasionally wreck you even when every individual call was correct.
That’s the same lesson behind sound bankroll and position-sizing discipline generally, knowing your edge is real doesn’t mean every individual bet should risk the whole account. If that framing interests you, the risk-management thinking in our bear market mistakes breakdown covers similar ground from the trading side, and the math-first approach to blackjack basic strategy or baccarat banker vs player odds follows the identical logic: know the number before you commit money to a decision.
Are Solvers and Equity Tools Legal at the Table in 2026?
Studying with a solver between sessions is completely standard and unrestricted, it’s how most serious players build the memorized charts above in the first place. Using any device or solver output during a hand is a different story. Live tournament rules published by the Poker Tournament Directors Association prohibit electronic devices at the table, and major series like those run through WSOP enforce this closely. The tools are legal to train with; they’re not legal to consult mid-hand.
For deeper matchup study or to check a specific hand combo that isn’t on the chart above, our poker equity tool runs the calculation directly, and the broader poker hub has more preflop and postflop breakdowns.
Poker is a skill-and-variance game, not a guaranteed income source, and no equity chart changes that. This content is for entertainment and educational purposes only, for players 18+, if the game stops being fun, see our responsible gambling resources.
Frequently asked questions
What are the most critical preflop all-in equities to memorize for 2026?
Start with AA vs KK (about 82/18), any coin flip like a pocket pair vs two overcards (roughly 52/48), and a dominated hand like AK vs AQ (about 74/26). Those three buckets — crushed, flip, dominated — cover the vast majority of shove/call decisions you'll see preflop.
Does memorizing preflop equities actually improve results in poker?
It speeds up decision-making and removes guesswork under time pressure, which matters most in live tournaments and fast online tables. It doesn't change the math itself — poker remains a game of skill layered on variance, and no equity chart guarantees a winning session.
What is the exact equity of pocket aces versus pocket kings preflop?
Per standard solver simulations, AA holds roughly 82% equity against KK all-in preflop, with KK around 18%. The gap comes almost entirely from AA's two live outs against a set, since KK can only improve by pairing a king or catching running cards.
How do preflop equity concepts apply to risk-reward decisions in a trading account?
Both disciplines force you to size a position (or a shove) based on a probability-weighted outcome rather than a gut feeling. A trader thinking in terms of position size versus max drawdown is running the same mental exercise as a poker player deciding whether 55% equity justifies risking a full stack.
Are solvers and equity training tools legal to use during live tournaments in 2026?
Studying with solvers between sessions is standard and unrestricted. Using any electronic device or solver output at the table during a hand is banned under rules published by the Poker Tournament Directors Association, and most casinos enforce this strictly.
What's the difference between a coin flip and a dominated hand preflop?
A coin flip is roughly 50/50, typically a pocket pair against two overcards (like 88 vs AK). A dominated hand shares a card with the favorite and is already behind before the flop, like AK vs AQ (about 74/26), because the dominated hand's outs are partially blocked.
How accurate is a memorized equity chart compared to running a full solver?
Chart numbers are accurate to within a percentage point or two for the common matchups because those spots have been simulated millions of times. Exact suits, blockers, and dead cards can shift a specific hand's equity slightly, which is where a live calculator still beats memory for edge cases.
Do preflop equities change much between cash games and tournaments?
The raw card-vs-card equity is identical in both formats since it's pure combinatorics. What changes is how that equity should be used — ICM pressure in tournaments can make a 55% coin flip a bad shove near the money bubble, even though the cards run exactly the same.